NATO 2030 DISCUSSION
February 4, 2021
- NATO 2030 arose from the declaration from the NATO Summit in London in December 2019 – the declaration called on NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg to initiate a “proposal for a forward-looking reflection process, drawing on relevant expertise, to further strengthen NATO’s political dimension”
- In March 2020 – Stoltenberg appointed a group of 10 experts for the NATO 2030 – 5 men and 5 women (https://www.nato.int/nato_static_fl2014/assets/pdf/2020/11/pdf/201125-nato2030-experts.pdf)
- In June 2020 – Stoltenberg announced this new campaign called “NATO 2030” in an online conversation with the Atlantic Council and the German Marshall Fund of the United States. That webinar is available online.
- Five months later, in November, NATO released its Expert Group’s reflection Report “NATO 2030: United for a New Era”
- In December there was a big public relations roll out for NATO 2030
- The institute Carnegie Europe held an hour-long webinar about this initiative “NATO Adapting to a New World” “https://carnegieeurope.eu/2020/12/03/nato-in-2030-adapting-to-new-world-event-7496
- There’s a web page dedicated to NATO 2030: https://www.nato.int/nato2030/
- There’s a massive social media campaign #NATO2030 with #WeAreNATO
About the Report
- The 67-page report is the analysis and recommendations of the expert group
- It identifies 13 challenges and threats: 1. Russia, 2. China, 3. Emerging & Disruptive Technologies, 4. Terrorism, 5. The South, 6. Arms Control & Deterrence, 7. Energy Security, 8. Climate & Green Defence, 9. Human Security & WPS, 10. Pandemics and Natural Disasters, 11. Hybrid and Cyber Threats, 12. Outer Space and 13. Strategic Communications
- There are many recommendations – one of the recommendations is a new strategic concept
- NATO 2030 is very much an expansion project for NATO – politically, financially and geographically
- KEY POINT = Military strength and political solidarity
- Calling for more money for the military and for political operations
- Talks about its Open Door Policy – to bring in Ukraine, Georgia, Bosnia into the alliance
- The two major targets are Russia and China – inflates the threat against these two countries
- Maintain a nuclear deterrence and new focus on AI
- There is a focus on increasing public and youth support and on greater scientific and research
My reaction to the report
- My overall assessment = its an extremely dangerous and provocative expansion project that we must resist
- Keeps us hostage to Cold War thinking and military posture
- Talks about the Threat of the South – veiled racist concern about refugees into Europe – no acknowledgement from its wars – NATO war against Libya and Afghanistan and Iraq & Syria
- Doesn’t really say anything about the catastrophic threat of climate change – reducing emissions, “modulating emissions”
- This NATO 2030 report references the 1967 NATO Harmel Report that was entitled “The Report of the Council on the Future Tasks of the Alliance” considered seminal
- It was led and prepared by Belgian Foreign Minister Pierre Harmel at the time
- Seven years earlier, in 1960 – Belgium orchestrated the assassination of Patrice Lumumba in the Congo (this was a coup that was coordinated by Belgian, US and Canada)
- It reminds me that NATO is fundamentally a racist, violent white supremacist organization
- NATO is an alliance of only 30 members – supposedly defending 1 billion people, but most of the world, the rest of the 6 billion people, and 163 UN members states are not in NATO
What’s Missing in the Report?
- The United Nations is mentioned three times in passing
- No mention of the Paris Agreement target of 2030
- No mention of the Sustainable Development Goals 2030
- No mention of poverty alleviation or of development
- The word “Disarmament” is mentioned twice with no substance in the section on “Arms Control and Nuclear Deterrence”
- No accountability for NATO’s aggression, wars and lies
Ideas for What to Do
- NATO 2030 is a dangerous and provocative agenda that must be strongly resisted by the peace movement
- We need to raise awareness about it – A statement against “NATO 2030”
- Counter this on social media with No to NATO 2030 / We Are NOT NATO
- Plan a counter-summit – major virtual conference with a Youth Against NATO panel
- Could we host a webinar with European Parliamentarians Against NATO – i.e. Clare Daly, Jeremy Corbyn other political leaders
- Is there money to hire a young person to help with the No to NATO counter-summit?
Reiner Braun – FOCUS ON EUROPE’S PERSPECTIVE
- NATO’s new strategy is the new program of the Biden government
- It’s a war-oriented program, very dangerous
- Political consultation – with the allies and also with the European Union, coordinating activities between NATO and the EU, NATO and EU creating a common vision, US wants to militarize the EU through this agenda, NATO 2030 gives the US greater political leverage in the EU
- Increase military spending even under the pandemic, NATO 2030 is calling for a new coordination system, yearly summits between EU and NATO, US is putting more pressure on allies to increase spending
- Military industrial complex of the US and of EU = it should be on one line, US wants to EU to reduce its military industries so that its weapons manufacturers benefit
- Controversy between two legs = EU and NATO
- More containment of Russia and encirclement of China
- More exercises and more cooperation and coordination between EU and NATO
- More burden sharing demanded by NATO and US on the allies
- NATO putting pressure to militarize EU
- This new NATO paper is confrontational and aggressive
- There are some key differences with the 1967 Harmel report
Joseph Gerson – FOCUS ON US PERSPECTIVE
- Concerned about the aggressive dimensions of this new initiative
- Focus on China
- Little public awareness of NATO in US and not on US peace movement’s radar
- NATO 2030 is beyond Biden, it’s the liberal establishment approach to US hegemony, US strengthening alliances to maintain US power, US power is reinforced by the alliances
- NATO 2030 reflects strategic doctrine of 2018 – Russia and China identified as peer competitors
- Statement by Charles Richard, STRATCOM, concerned of threats from Russia and China, preparation for nuclear war, primary threat is China from US military perspective / See: https://www.foxnews.com/politics/nuclear-war-with-china-russia-a-real-possibility-stratcom-commander-warns
- US-Russia tensions will increase not withstanding New START extension
- Massive hacking of US government – example of Russian aggression that will justify greater militarization
- Military spending in US – need to revitalize economy in face of pandemic, need $1.9 trillion relief package, in spring there will be debate on national budget and priorities, Joseph doesn’t expect reduction of military, stay the same, more pressure on allies to increase their military budgets
- EU-China trade agreement – tension with US
- NATO 2030 is about increasing integration with military operations – division of labour, US will place greater emphasis on NATO in Europe to confront Russia and US will focus on China
Kristine – NATO AND WOMEN, PEACE AND SECURITY (WPS)
- Discusses NATO’s Women, Peace and Security (WPS)
- NATO puts WPS with its Human Security chapter in the report
- Trying to increase more women in their militaries, more women in exercises and operations
- NATO ignores other aspects of UNSC resolution 1325 on WPS like including more women in decision making for conflict, prevention, conflict resolution, peacebuilding and decision-making
- NATO has a special representative for WPS (it’s a Canadian woman Claire Hutchinson): https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_91091.htm
- NATO claims to care about human dignity but it is a military alliance – patriarchal structure that reproduces Western masculinity, military & hegemony, responsible for tremendous gender-based violence
- NATO ignores nonviolent conflict resolution, care for each other, care for the planet, solidarity
- We have to get rid of NATO otherwise we won’t get to human security and achieve a peaceful, just world
- We need to work harder to call for the abolition of NATO
Angelo – YOUTH
- NATO Youth Summit held in November 2020, 100 youth from member countreis and global partners
- Stoltenberg said “NATO 2030 is about your future and freedom. NATO 2030 is a chance for you to step up”
- NATO Youth panel = 14 youth selected
- Trying to increase awareness and support by youth for NATO
- NATO will start at NATO University to inculcate NATO values
- We have to counter NATO’s notion of “security
- We should launch a “Youth Network Against NATO” – Angelo is starting reach out to other young people to cooperate, he wants to create a movement against NATO, he will hold a youth summit against NATO
Jenny Clegg – Why focus on political unity because of differences between Europe and US, there is some ambivalence in Europe
Jenny wrote about NATO and China “World should unite and denounce new Cold War”: https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1196029.shtml
UK under right wing government of Boris Johnson with close links to US right, UK will push Biden to the right
UK will move its aircraft carrier to the Pacific, Boris Johnson “to make Britain great again,” it will make a big maritime tour of force around the world, it wants to put pressure on Japan to increase its navy
Conservative government has increased military spending under pandemic, UK is 5th largest economy, hosting G7, D10 alliance against China, France and Germany don’t want that, Australia, South Korea and India might be invited to D10, UK is hosting COP 26
Revival of social movements of climate change, inequalities, BLM, coming together in Britain, we have to do that in Britain and with others around the world
IPB could bring together progressive movements in Barcelona
Who is the enemy? Russia, China NO – it’s the pandemic, greatest obstacle is geopolitical rivalries – drive a message for international cooperation, need opposition to militarism
Boris also says that UK should be a maritime power and lead the way for other NATO members
Reiner – key challenge for us, rivalry with China, very dangerous for the whole world
UK is playing an interesting role, PESCO European militarization, UK is still part of that, another military alliance with Germany and France – common training and coordination, UK is supporting US as key leader in NATO, UK is drinking in all bars, very dangerous: https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/can-europe-make-it/the-european-unions-new-muscular-militarism-in-a-dangerous-world/
Barcelona IPB conference – what are the alternatives? We need common security, politics of common security is the alternative as a peaceful alternative of confrontation
Under Biden, US won’t give up any bases in Europe but might reduce a few soldiers, US will continue Ramstein for drone war, will find a base in Africom, control instrument, militarization of European Union is linked with NATO, always connection, who is the boss of these connections? This is the fight between US and EU
Ludo – terrible report, but there may be opportunities to oppose NATO, report will be central in the next NATO Summit, Biden and Stoltenberg talked, Summit will be held in Brussels, we have to prepare ourselves very fast
Opportunities – a lot of talk about the nuclear alliance, experts put forward are afraid about public opinion regarding nuclear arms, experts said NATO needs to do more to convince people that nuclear weapons are needed, this is to counter ICAN’s poll that European countries people are opposed to nukes, there are divisions in NATO, France called NATO “brain dead”, frictions with Trump and Turkey, still many divisions, some divisions concerning China, there was a EU investment agreement with China so some European countries don’t want to NATO’s posture to China
We need common security – problem of defence budgets, 2% of GDP, every year NATO releases its defence expenditure report, with the pandemic people see we need a new healthcare system, we have to show military spending is putting a burden on our national budgets, we have to raise awareness about this and emphasize it
Ray – appalling report, contrary to the truth, gives us opportunity to resist NATO, people want spending on climate change, greening military technology – doesn’t go together, NATO puts pressure on building more weapons, this makes climate change worse, stance on nuclear deterrence has not changed – people see that nuclear weapons don’t provide security, we can act together and individually to raise awareness, no one wants to talk about NATO in the UK
Benjamin – NATO 2030 sounds repetitive, NATO always has to find a new enemy, in Denmark they raised awareness about NATO’s reliance nuclear weapons – NATO is blocking disarmament, military industries are very strong and prevent disarmament, Denmark is more part of the war machine, people are worried about climate change but don’t see military impacts, we have to raise public awareness in our countries
Reiner – his suggestion to make NATO 2030 well known, write articles, raise the issue with the left political parties, we should have a statement against NATO 2030, we should have actions of peace groups in the spring – we should protest NATO document, plan the Easter Marches, we have to include No to NATO 2030, we should start preparing counter summit soon, it is clear that it will be in Brussels, we should have protest action in the city and virtually
Ludo – agrees with Reiner, these are difficult times to organize protests, we should discuss actions that we can do, virtual workshop would be set up, maybe a demonstration if possible, another idea is a Nuclear Free Europe, US bombs replaced with new B61-12 bombs in two years, trying to create public awareness, NATO has a disinformation campaign about the TPNW, host countries are repeating these lies, NATO is a nuclear-armed terrorist organization
Kristine – maybe having a meeting on Women Against NATO in March
Tony – NATO having a forum “Halifax International Security Forum” (HISF) held every November since 2009 in Nova Scotia in eastern Canada, Canadian peace groups have protested HISF every year, HISF 2020 released a statement that focused on China, in Canada has militarized pandemic response, political dimension is also an internal project, the NATO Association of Canada has pushed support for NATO in the country, Halifax is an important NATO port, we need a new narrative, 1950 security dilemma Kissinger quote, problem of the Anglo-American powers all along, strategic standpoint of desperation, most of the world is not part of NATO, it’s the absence of politics of US and UK, we need a new politics and a new narrative
Anna – she supports hiring a youth organizer
Ingela – Women for Peace in Sweden, proposal of Ludo, focus on nuclear deterrence, seminar will be held to talk about nuclear deterrence, Sweden is now talking about nuclear deterrence, Sweden is pushing Russian threat, very dangerous
Alain – there will be another Defender 2021 exercise, focused on the Black Sea and in the Balkans, we should mobilize against this exercise, they are not popular in those countries
Kristine – proposed small ICC committee meeting at the end of February
Tamara – proposed another meeting in early March, small group of people to craft statement against NATO 2030 (Tamara, Kristine, Ludo, Anna and Reiner), the statement should be ready before April 4, NATO’s anniversary
12:02:43 From Benjamin Gottberg : TID Til FRED – aktiv mod krig
12:04:47 From Joseph Gerson : Joseph Gerson USA – Campaign for Peace, Disarmament and Common Security, IPB & Committee for a SANE U.S.-China POlicy
12:04:52 From Mikael Böök : Good Evening (Hyvää iltaa) from Finland http://www.kaapeli.fi/book
12:04:58 From Steinar Eraker : Stopp NATO in Norway
12:05:34 From bahram : bahram from Green Party US
12:05:44 From Allan Dk TTF : Hello all Im Allan from Denmark with Tid Til Fred. Im keeping the mic and cam off for now a pleasure to see you all and participate
12:06:40 From Henrik Hjelle : Greetings to you all! This is Henrik Hjelle from Stopp NATO, Norway.
12:06:45 From Angelo Cardona : Angelo Cardona, Ibero-American Alliance for Peace & IPB Council member.
12:07:17 From Pauline Auer : Hey, I’m Pauline, Intern at the IPB Berlin office and working with the IPBYouthNetwork.
12:08:01 From Anthony Seed : Greetings. Tony Seed from No Harbour for War in Halifax and supporter of CC(M-L), publisher of anti-war blog, tonyseed.wordpresscom
12:10:39 From ludo De Brabander : Hi! I’m Ludo De Brabander, Vrede vzw, Ghent-Belgium involved in organizing the counter summits in Brussels (2017 & 2018) www.vrede.be. I’m member of the ICC ‘no to war no to nato’
12:11:25 From jenny Clegg : Hi everyone, I’m Jenny Clegg CND UK
12:11:58 From kees kalkman : Hi, Kees Kalkman from Netherlands here
12:17:21 From Anthony Seed : 30 countries do not a world make
12:18:14 From Ann Wright : excellent analysis!!!
12:25:32 From Ann Wright : U.S. Air Force is temporarily deploying 200 personnel with an expeditionary B-1 Lancer squadron to Norway to help manage bomber training flights in the region, U.S. European Command announced Tuesday.
12:26:09 From Ann Wright : The move comes as the American military sharpens its focus on the Arctic region <https://www.defensenews.com/smr/frozen-pathways/>. NATO member Norway, at its northeasternmost tip, shares a border with Russia, and Moscow’s military modernization on the Kola Peninsula <https://www.defensenews.com/smr/transatlantic-partnerships/2020/06/22/nordic-militaries-rekindle-old-alliances-as-russia-warms-to-the-region/> has helped position the area as a would-be flashpoint.
12:27:06 From Ann Wright : from friend in Norway: THanks, Ann, Because the Artic sea ice is changing when the temperature is increasing, new areas are available for war vehicles. Now the Artic and polar regions are tempting areas for both Nato, USA, Russia and also China- but so far only for research. With our conservative government our war zone is coming nearer and nearer. A big NATO training force had to stop last week, because of Corona. The Norwegian parliament does not get all necessary information here. I`ll send your email to the leaders of the two left wing parties, even if they already have read your text.
12:44:12 From Ann Wright : world Beyond war already has an educational arm, a no war university!
12:44:51 From Kristine, Norway, Stopp NATO : angelo: could you wright your contact adress in the chat?
12:45:12 From Ann Wright : Angelo, I think World Beyond War would partner with you for a youth conference against NATO
12:45:31 From rosan huizenga WILPF NL Asperen : what is the relation between NATo and USEUCOM?????
12:46:16 From Angelo Cardona : Thank you Ann, I will reach out to WBY
12:46:45 From Angelo Cardona : Perhaps Ann you could connect me to someone in World Beyond War??
12:47:36 From Angelo Cardona : I will email you later on Ann!! Thanks
12:47:38 From kristine karch : Angelo do you have a Mailing list for the youth Network or other contacts or social media channels?
12:49:42 From Joseph Gerson : To better understand the history and dynamics of the U.S china tensions – including the increased and provoative confrontations In the South China Sea and over Taiwan see the Committee for a SANE U.S.-China Policy website: http://saneuschinapolicy.org/ We will be adding a resource about NATO 2030..
12:51:26 From jenny Clegg : https://www.spokesmanbooks.com/Spokesman/PDF/146Clegg.pdf On NATO US, EU and China
12:51:30 From Angelo Cardona : No, I don’t have a mailing list yet for the Youth Network but I will create one with the youth willing to join the network of Youth Against NATO. I will share it with you once I get it!
12:54:41 From kristine karch : Angelo we have prepared a part for youth on https://www.no-to-nato.org/youth-against-nato/ and you are free to send me articles or other informations and I will publish them.
12:55:08 From kristine karch : We have a similar for women https://www.no-to-nato.org/women-against-nato/
12:55:49 From Angelo Cardona : Lovely! Thank you Kristine for doing that. Much needed indeed!!
12:55:50 From Ann Wright : the largest US land exercises for 2021 will be Defender 21 held for the first time in Asia to counter China
12:56:00 From Ann Wright : reducing US presence abroad was Trumps policy, not the Democrats policy
12:56:17 From Tamara Lorincz (She/Her) : Reiner, what instrument did you say about NATO and Africa?
12:56:26 From Ann Wright : Eucom is the US joint command for Europe and the primary US military contact with NATO
12:56:32 From jenny Clegg : Boris wants to revive UK as a maritime power to lead the way for NATO’s maritime powers
12:58:27 From Anthony Seed : A question of information: what role is NATO taking using question of pandemic to promote military as an essential public service? In Canada, mil is in charge of vaccine distribution.
13:06:00 From Andreu Ginestet : nuclear deterrence is only About Business and it is a main mean to Keep global civil Society in check, as to put a danger out, of which global civil Society Needs to be protected by a superior Entity.
13:08:46 From Ann Wright : US Military has Military has a huge “green” program that they put prominently on their military bases websites. even progressive Mother Jones has an article on the Green Military. https://www.motherjones.com/environment/2013/02/green-projects-us-military/
13:09:16 From Angie Zelter : A simple short leaflet about current NATO , its overseas bases and out of area interventions that is useable in all NATO countries that we can all use and launch on same day
13:09:43 From Joseph Gerson : Following on Tamara’s comment and with sympathy for ludo, what might we do in response to the next NATO summit?
13:09:49 From Angie Zelter : get into our local and national press. We know but the general public are ignorant.
13:09:52 From kristine karch : Please let me know, if you want to included in the no-to-nato Mailing list and / or women-against-nato.
13:10:07 From Angie Zelter : Yes.
13:10:26 From kristine karch : than i Need your email
13:10:37 From jenny Clegg : Action: develop dialogue with local environmental groups on opposing geopolitical competition and the need for international cooperation/common security. Action: No to NATO to mobilise international support for opposition in the UK to aircraft carrier deployment.
13:11:10 From Ann Wright : examples of us Military green programs: https://www.cnic.navy.mil/regions/cnrh/om/environmental.html
13:13:14 From Ann Wright : here’s the us navy’s green program for the huge Park Harbor back base. it reads good but the environment suffers!
13:13:45 From Andreu Ginestet : The narrative Needs to Change Overall. We Need to Focus on a new Peace narrative. Peace Needs to be depicted as a possible alternative, also in economic field.
13:15:14 From Andreu Ginestet : We will need to think About what we do if we are not allowed into the Streets. If we are allowed, it will be complicated. The plan the war-mongers drive is of psychic Erosion.
13:15:53 From kristine karch : https://www.no-to-nato.org/calender-of-peace-activities/ information About Peace and anti NATO activities
13:15:56 From Joseph Gerson : On the subject of U.S. military responses to the climate emergency seek Michael Klare’s new boo All Hell Breaking Loose
13:16:37 From Andreu Ginestet : NPT and TPNW are not compatible, because NATO is not compatible. Diplomats, politicians and military in the US know this and talk openly About it.
13:16:50 From Tamara Lorincz (She/Her) : Could we have a webinar with political leaders ie Clare Daly and Jeremy Corbyn and others???? You know better
13:17:21 From Alain Rouy : Links to the text of the report in French and in English (Nato Source): https://www.nato.int/nato_static_fl2014/assets/pdf/2020/12/pdf/201201-Reflection-Group-Final-Report-Fre.pdf https://www.nato.int/nato_static_fl2014/assets/pdf/2020/12/pdf/201201-Reflection-Group-Final-Report-Uni.pdf
13:18:33 From Angie Zelter : projections on all the NATO bases as an action that describes them as terrorist organisation and with a website with ther info we want people to understand. They projections should also go on major media HQs. On same day all over.
13:31:27 From Kristine, Norway, Stopp NATO : A common statement would be very helpfull – also towards the press. It will show the common protest against NATO and the 2030 report.
13:32:19 From Anthony Seed : The British base for Ukraine/Black Sea that I mentioned is with participation of Sweden and Canada. Details are very little.
13:35:36 From Benjamin Gottberg : 70 years birthday of NATO in Copenhagen
13:35:49 From Benjamin Gottberg : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vQNGtfKRpvI&t=280s
13:36:08 From Anthony Seed : Tamara is right about the contribution the young women made in Canada.
13:36:36 From Anthony Seed : thanks to everyone