Intervention by Prof. Anu Chenoy at the NATO in Crisis: Time to Overcome the War Machine  Pre-Summit | July 3, 2026 

US global strategy under Trump: back to universal hegemony? Is war a ‘way out’ for capitalism’s multi-crises? 

US Global Strategy in a Post-unipolar World

US is not disguising its desire for hemispheric dominance. US current Strategy for dominance is accelerated, blunt, transactional, unapologetic about use of force and more personalized than ever before. This indicates both a desperation of a declining power and increase in domestic oligarchic control. Decrease in accountability and increase in gap between citizens and policy makers. US is not willing to accept strategic autonomy from allies and expects an open display hierarchic/vassalized relations. US seeks regime change especially in the Western hemisphere, as   Venezuela operations  indicated -but failure in Iran.

The reality is that Hegemonic power is disrupted:

1. Rise of China,  and American  recognition of its inability to contain China economically and militarily evident in the Trump- Xi Jinping “constructive strategic stability” arrangement.
2. Russia ability to hold off  the NATO proxy  war of attrition from both sides against Ukraine.
3. Iran’s  strategic win which has led to a new equation and changed security architecture in the Mediterranean, and Middle East.
4. Rise of  middle powers, who have capability of strategic hedging and resisting US dictates.
5. Regional/ plurilateral non militarist organizations like BRICS, SCO Increased agency of various powers and regional groupings. Example, ASEAN -Putin meeting in Kazan, Russia June 17, 2026, with deliverables on cooperation like ASEAN-Russian Comprehensive Plan of Action[i]  indicating that ASEAN is navigating new relation with Russia.[ii] will not accept a ‘Russia free ASEAN’.
6. Ability of small states who can exercise agency and balance between powers US strategic shift is visible in its relations with NATO and its allies. For example, Pakistan can strategically hedge between China and the US. Vietnam is partnering with Vietnam, Russia, and China. Mongolia between Russia and China, and so on.

The US has a strategic shift which is visible under NATO context, from collective security to ‘security deals.’ Changed relations from alliance to one of  US hegemony within the alliance. The US strategy for NATO and its allies outside NATO in the Global South. U.S. strategy for NATO- burden sharing mechanism. Pushing allies to increase military spending where US gets benefits from weapon sales, re-industrialization. US strategy extends to non NATO partners   For example, its tariff deals with Korea, Japan, India, each of whom will invest billions of dollars in the US. So the US is making a tribute system in exchange for not even providing security, but security sharing. So it gets a double benefit of tribute and sharing security.

US has de-linked the Indo-Pacific – to just of Pacific Command- PASCOM (i) priority theatre is the Pacific. The main theater is in the Pacific because both Russia and China are sure it and here Japan, Korea. And to a lesser effect, Philippines are not just US bases, but they’re now partners in defense, and frontline states against China.

The Indian Ocean now separate command- where US interests in Indian Ocean and Persian Gulf are now linked after Iran war- with Base facilities in Diego Garca archipelago used against Iran-n B 52 US bombers. Trumps transactional method has undermined the  liberal values that have been the foundation of the NATO alliance. So political identity of NATO alliance weakened.

Crises of legitimacy and Crises of Narrative. (The destruction of Gaza would not have been possible without NATO states support. -(Merz Chancellor “Israel is doing our job)

Therefore there is a crisis of operational efficiency of this alliance system.

Europe pushing for strategic autonomy and for reserves towards frontier countries is challenged; Widened  rifts eg. Europe wants to rebalance China. So NATO not in decline but appendage of US low cost hegemony. However, NATO is not just a security organization primarily it is a war organization, an imperialist front. But it’s also a geo-economic structure because it functions with the World Bank and the IMF for creating long term dependencies. Debt traps. For the Global South, forcing privatization for the Global South, unfair trade deals, and any opposition to these rules of the US and NATO combined leads to threats, frozen assets, sanctions, blockades, regime change. We’ve all felt it. Repeatedly in the global South. But I feel now this can also be imposed on the smaller European states. So Europe has to watch out.

US strategy is of 4 dominance each with problem:

1. energy dominance- but I don’t believe it’s fully possible anymore, because Iran, in just the last two weeks after the Strait of Hormuz opened, exported 48 million barrels of oil to Asia. The GC, the Gulf cooperation countries are diversifying. Russia is exporting even more. So I don’t think the UN can shut this down without causing a global crisis. And these countries are not willing to listen. They do negotiate with the US. The US is not out of the picture, but they have more leverage.
2. AI and tech dominance for which US needs rare earths and minerals and this new digital colonialism of countries which use their cloud and servers and their mail, et cetera, which is extracting our data and our culture. But this is also challenged by China and growing AI countries which are using their own AI.
   
3. weapons sales dominance- China is equal, but there also there’s a diversification, so it cannot be complete.
4. Financial dollar dominance- which was very much there in the unipolar movement but it is challenged today. For instance, Russia, China, India, the Gulf countries, and even Japan and ASEAN, they’re trading with each other in national currencies. This does not mean de-dollarization or an end to the dollar, but with a multipolar world, you’re going to have multiple currencies and multiple economic channels.

 Conclusions:

1.  The US has turned NATO and its allies into a weaponized interdependence. US new strategies have changing relations from one between allies  to between hegemon and vassals within the bloc of allies within the NATO bloc, Leave alone outside.
2. Old and new forms of colonial interdependence where there is a hierarchy of co-opted stakeholders within NATO and US’s allies countries -especially from the right sector, and these transnational corporations are linked.
3. NATO not ruptured but in decline with the US; Trump shown US is unreliable and inconsistent. It could undermine and weaponize any relation including NATO. So relations  with US need to be restructured.
4. There are new layers in the international system   that promote plurality and alternatives- multipolarity, and regional nodes and networks. Russia- China-Iran leverage. Others strategic hedging possible. Gap between regimes and peoples. This gives peoples and peace movements new openings.